While this reduction is a positive development, experts caution that the overall trend is not as encouraging as it may seem. Stuart McDonald, an analyst at the CMI, described the past five years as showing “basically flat mortality improvement,” a stagnation that is considered poor by historical standards.
Historically, the UK has experienced significant declines in mortality rates. Between 1974 and 2011, the number of deaths per capita steadily decreased, primarily due to advances in medical treatments, reductions in smoking rates, and improvements in the management of heart disease and cancer.
However, this progress slowed considerably after 2011, and from 2019 onward, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a temporary surge in mortality. During the pandemic years, thousands more deaths than usual were recorded, pushing the mortality rate above its previous trajectory. Even in 2022, when the worst of the pandemic had passed, the UK still experienced excess deaths compared to pre-pandemic trends.
The latest 2024 data suggests that mortality rates have now returned to their long-term trajectory. However, this trajectory is not as steeply declining as it once was, meaning that overall improvements in life expectancy are happening at a much slower pace than in previous decades.
Several factors have contributed to the UK’s slower progress in reducing death rates since 2011. Many of the major advancements in public health, such as reductions in smoking and improvements in heart disease treatment, had already been achieved before 2010. As a result, further reductions in mortality have become more difficult.
At the same time, new and worsening health risks have emerged. Rising obesity rates, poor diets, and declining levels of physical activity have all contributed to an increased risk of chronic illnesses, including heart disease, diabetes, and certain cancers.
Economic and social factors have also played a role. Some researchers argue that austerity measures following the 2008 financial crisis, which led to cuts in public services and healthcare funding, may have negatively impacted mortality rates. However, others believe it is difficult to directly link government spending cuts to health outcomes.
The most common causes of death in the UK remain similar to previous years. Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease are now the leading causes of death in England and Wales, reflecting the country’s aging population. Other major causes of death include heart disease, lung disease, strokes, and lung cancer. In some years, flu and respiratory illnesses have also contributed significantly to mortality.
Cardiovascular disease remains a major public health concern. According to Professor Bryan Williams, Chief Scientific and Medical Officer at the British Heart Foundation, the UK’s progress in reducing heart disease deaths has stalled in recent years. He warned that early deaths from cardiovascular disease have been increasing in the most deprived areas of England, highlighting growing health inequalities.
Williams called for urgent government action to improve the prevention, early detection, and treatment of heart disease, emphasizing that the pandemic has placed additional strain on an already overstretched healthcare system.
While overall mortality rates have declined, there is growing concern about an increase in death rates among younger adults, particularly those aged 20-44. Unlike older age groups, where deaths are typically caused by chronic illnesses, deaths among younger people are more likely to result from external factors, including drug overdoses, alcohol-related illnesses, accidents, homicides, and suicides.
Stuart McDonald of the CMI highlighted that death rates in this age group have been rising slightly since 2011, even before the pandemic. In contrast, other Western European countries have continued to see improvements in mortality among younger populations.
One particularly alarming trend is the rise in drug-related deaths, especially in Scotland. Antonino Polizzi, a researcher at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford, noted that while other European nations have managed to reduce drug-related fatalities, the UK has seen an increase. This divergence suggests that policy interventions may be needed to address substance abuse and mental health challenges.
Despite the record-low mortality rate in 2024, the UK is falling behind comparable countries in terms of life expectancy gains. Nations such as Spain have already returned to pre-pandemic life expectancy levels, while the UK’s progress has been much slower.
Dr. Veena Raleigh, an epidemiologist at health think tank The King's Fund, acknowledged that it is positive news that the UK’s death rate has fallen. However, she warned that when looking at the broader picture, the country is still underperforming compared to its European counterparts.
She pointed out that the UK’s stagnation in life expectancy and mortality improvements is more severe than in many other developed nations. This suggests that broader systemic issues, including healthcare accessibility, economic inequalities, and public health policies, may be contributing to the country’s slower progress.
In response to these concerns, the UK government has pledged to prioritize disease prevention and improve public health. A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care stated that the government is working to "shift focus from sickness to prevention" through several key initiatives.
Creating the first smoke-free generation: The government plans to phase out smoking by increasing regulations and restricting tobacco sales.
Targeting childhood obesity: Efforts are being made to reduce junk food advertising aimed at children and promote healthier lifestyles.
Enhancing early disease detection: Improvements in screening programs for cancer, cardiovascular disease, and other conditions aim to catch illnesses earlier and improve survival rates.
While these efforts could help address some of the health challenges facing the UK, experts emphasize that more needs to be done to tackle long-standing issues such as social inequality, access to healthcare, and mental health services.
The record-low death rate in 2024 is a positive development, but it does not necessarily indicate a dramatic improvement in public health. Instead, it suggests a return to the slow-moving trend of mortality reduction that was already in place before the pandemic.
For the UK to regain its momentum in improving life expectancy, experts argue that a more comprehensive approach is needed. This includes addressing social determinants of health, investing in preventive care, and ensuring that healthcare services are adequately funded and accessible to all.
Additionally, targeted interventions will be necessary to address the rising mortality rates among younger adults, particularly in relation to drug-related deaths, mental health, and substance abuse.
In the coming years, policymakers and health experts will need to monitor these trends closely and implement strategies that go beyond short-term fixes. Only then can the UK ensure sustained improvements in public health and life expectancy for future generations.
